The Real Reason There's No iPhone 5: The Carriers

In retrospect, it shouldn't be a surprise that Apple released a half-step iPhone this week, instead of a revolutionary and redesigned iPhone 5. Think about it--the real reason for the iPhone 4S is the same as for the iPhone 3GS: carrier contracts are two years long.
The 4S isn't meant to be an upgrade for iPhone 4 users--it's a lure to get new iPhone users in the door, and you iPhone 4 folks will get your iPhone 5 upgrade just in time for a new contract. And if you decide you can't wait and spend big bucks to break your contract or buy the iPhone 4S at full price...well, that was your choice, wasn't it?

Is the most amazing iPhone yet good enough?

(Credit: Apple.com)

Look back at Apple's iPhone release history and you'll see that the iPhone 4S is just the next step in the product evolution, which went from 3G to 3GS to 4, and now to 4S. It actually makes perfect sense, once the lust for new technology and new Apple hardware starts to subside. If anything, Apple is playing a very clever shell game with carrier contracts that allows it to grab new buyers every year instead of every two years.
  Molly polled her Twitter brigade after the announcement, asking them whether the iPhone 4 users in the audience would upgrade to the iPhone 4S. The vast majority of iPhone 4 users said no, and the main reason they cited was their contracts. Examples:

@mollywood No way. Vain nerds (me) don't care about behind the scenes improvements, and siri isn't cool enough to warrant contract breakage.

@mollywood I won't. I still have 1 year on my contract, so I'll wait for the next iPhone to "wow" me. The 4GS isn't impressive, IMO.

@mollywood it's a no for me Molly. I didn't upgrade from 3G to 3GS for the same reason - nothing to justify the ETF [early termination fee]

That was a pretty standard set of responses from the iPhone 4 set and no surprise, really. (A few said they'd get it no matter what, out of sheer Apple love, but that's to be expected.) On the other hand, here are some responses from 3G owners:

@mollywood iPhone 3GS owner definitely upgrading to an iPhone 4S

@mollywood I am buying, though upgrading from a 3GS, so the reason is pretty obvious. Always wait for the refined product!

@mollywood yes. Wife's 3GS done. She gets my 4, I get 4S

Think about the staggering for a second here and you'll see it's a pretty smart strategy on Apple's part. iPhone 3G owners on contract could skip the 3GS and get a meaty upgrade in the iPhone 4, while iPhone 3GS owners can feel great about jumping all the way up to the Siri-enabled iPhone 4S. Meanwhile, iPhone 4 owners get most of the features of iOS 5, minus Siri, and can pay a nice fat premium if they really, really want it. Either way, Apple sells iPhones year after year after year.
Sure, the iConsumer is being played, but the rage is less than what it would be if the forced upgrade march--an inevitability with Apple and all other consumer tech--was moving at a faster clip than the carrier contracts.